- Oil prices jumped (Brent and WTI up about 1.6–1.9%) after the U.S. threatened an indefinite naval blockade of Iran, stoking fears of disrupted Middle East crude supplies.
- Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz rose — Iran has curbed flows, shipping fell, and two UAE ADNOC vessels were reportedly attacked.
- Countervailing factors could limit gains: OPEC/IEA see weaker demand ahead, and U.S. crude inventories posted their biggest weekly rise in over 3½ years.
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