Analysis-Fearless US stock market vulnerable to shocks as midterms loom

Stocks are near record highs and volatility measures are unusually low, so investors aren't pricing much election risk right now.
UBS's "Turbu-lens" and other signals warn the market is fragile — calm now, but potentially ill-prepared for a shock.
With midterms two months away, a surprise or a flip in Congress could spark the typically volatile Sept–Oct period, though many expect solid earnings to cushion any sell-off.