Analysts expected oil to surge above $200 but China has quietly kept prices half of that—and can’t for much longer

Despite dire early warnings, oil hasn’t spiked to $200 — prices are around $94/barrel more than three months into the Iran conflict.
China has sharply cut imports (from ~11m b/d average to about 7.8m b/d in May) and leaned on ~1.4 billion barrels of strategic reserves, accounting for roughly 74% of the global drop in crude trade.
That buffer may be temporary: analysts warn prices could rise if the war drags on and reserves need rebuilding or supply restoration requires higher returns.