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Explainer-China's oil imports have plunged during the Iran war. How much will they recover?

  • China has sharply cut oil imports — from an average of 11.5m bpd to about 8m bpd since April — which has helped keep global prices lower and freed cargoes for other buyers.
  • Analysts are puzzled whether the drop is permanent; possible causes include drawing down secret reserves, a weak economy and property slump, and faster uptake of EVs and electric trucks cutting petrol/diesel use.
  • The outlook depends on Beijing’s moves — if it resumes stockpiling or changes fuel export curbs, imports could rebound, so uncertainty about long-term demand remains.
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