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Goldman economist offers a reality check on AI adoption: it took 15 years for computers to really show up in the data

  • Big gains may be slow — Goldman warns AI could follow the PC-era "J-curve," depressing productivity at first and only delivering broad macro boosts years (think 2030–2034) after debut.
  • Workers are resisting: surveys find many employees knowingly avoid or "sabotage" company AI tools, especially younger cohorts, so adoption is as much cultural as technical.
  • The real bottleneck is organizational: hardware is rising fast, but costly redesign of jobs, software, and processes is lagging — and that messy work is what actually unlocks productivity.
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