- The conflict is in a costly stalemate: Iran weakened but still in power, while the U.S. has shifted from strikes to economic pressure.
- Washington is using sanctions and a naval blockade to choke Iran’s oil and banking ties, but Tehran bets partners like China and India won’t fully comply.
- Deepening hardship risks unrest inside Iran and worries Gulf states about disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz and higher oil prices.
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