- Moody’s economist Mark Zandi says Trump has roughly a week to secure a US‑Iran deal before oil shocks make a recession far more likely.
- Oil jumped about 7% after Iran paused talks and threatened the Strait of Hormuz; US gas averages $4.32/gal now and could top $5 if prices keep rising.
- Zandi warns crude rising toward $125/barrel (and low SPR inventories) could push the already‑fragile US economy into recession — a concern shared by other forecasters.
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