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Fed seen a bit more likely to hike after inflation data

  • U.S. inflation ticked up in July — PCE inflation rose to 3.7% year‑over‑year and core PCE held at 3.3%.
  • The slightly hotter data boosted odds of a Fed rate hike: futures put about a 44% chance of a September move and see a hike by year‑end.
  • The Fed has kept its policy rate at 3.50%–3.75% since December, and the chair has not said whether inflation will fall without further hikes.
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