- China’s exports have surged to record levels (a $1.2 trillion trade surplus in 2025) and, aided by cheap pricing and state support, are undercutting rivals by as much as 30%.
- Economists warn the export-driven model is hitting a demand limit, spurring rising protectionism (tariffs, EU barriers) and raising fears of a global economic shock if China’s export engine stalls.
- The fallout would ripple through commodity exporters and developing economies, shift global supply dynamics toward tech- and capital-heavy Chinese goods, and could leave the U.S. to shoulder much of the cleanup.
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