Chipmakers head for big profit gains, but will it be enough?

Chip stocks have gone from blockbuster to bumpy — the semiconductor index is up ~65% YTD but swung wildly in July and sits over 20% below its late‑June peak.
The group is expected to drive about 44% of S&P 500 Q2 earnings growth (semis forecast +133% YoY), largely on AI demand — but investors are debating how durable that is.
Retail option activity and leveraged ETFs have amplified the volatility (prompting regulatory moves in South Korea), so any disappointing earnings could spark sharp sell‑offs.