- J.P. Morgan’s David Kelly says the U.S. is “going broke slowly”—federal debt-to-GDP is already ~101% and could rise to roughly 115%–130% by 2036 under plausible scenarios.
- Wall Street and the IMF are sounding alarms: interest costs top $1 trillion now, and higher long-term Treasury yields or a debt‑ceiling or Fed‑independence shock could trigger market pain.
- Politically, big spending cuts or tax hikes look unlikely, so the most probable outcome is slow fiscal deterioration—an easy, topical line for conversations about markets or politics.
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