- U.S. threats of "the toughest sanctions" risk further escalation with Iran and its allies in the Gulf.
- Iran and Houthi attacks have already disrupted shipping—threats to close the Strait of Hormuz or block the Red Sea could push up global oil prices.
- Tehran could retaliate indirectly—striking Gulf targets, critical infrastructure (power/desalination) or using cyberattacks and covert operations abroad.