- Slight easing: home prices are now seen falling a bit less in 2026 (around 3.4% vs 3.5% earlier), but overall prices are still expected to decline into 2027.
- Deeper pain for activity: property investment (about a 20% drop this year) and home sales are forecast to fall more sharply than previously thought.
- Policy stance: Beijing is focused on containing financial risks, finishing stalled projects and clearing excess inventory rather than engineering a quick market rebound.
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