- A global shortage of fuel oil for ships and power plants is expected in Q3 as refiners prioritize diesel/gasoline amid war-related disruptions — likely meaning higher bunker prices and shipping costs.
- Asia, particularly Singapore (the world’s biggest bunker hub), looks set to be worst hit — stocks are about 30% below seasonal averages and prices have jumped roughly 76% since the Iran war began.
- Outages, strikes and longer shipping routes to avoid the Red Sea/Bab el-Mandeb — plus refiners turning fuel oil into more profitable products — are cutting exports from Russia and the Middle East and tightening supply.
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