- The U.S. has spent about $37.5 billion on the Iran conflict and the Pentagon is pushing a massive defense budget, yet many big defense stocks (e.g., Northrop, L3Harris, Lockheed) have fallen—surprising given expectations of a wartime boost.
- Investors say much of the “good news” was already priced in, and history shows the biggest gains often come when you invest before a conflict or funding is locked in—not after missiles start flying.
- Meanwhile, VC money is flooding defense tech (record $19.8B in Q1 2026) and startups like Anduril and Shield AI are surging, hinting the next winners might be new tech firms rather than legacy contractors.
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