- Trump is pushing for lower interest rates, but officials at the Fed (now led by Kevin Warsh) and Wall Street mostly expect them to hold—or even tighten—rather than oblige him.
- Elevated inflation (3.5%) is being driven in part by higher fuel prices tied to the Middle East tensions and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
- Markets are leaning toward a rate hold this week, and Warsh’s credibility and communication style are under fresh scrutiny as policymakers weigh the next moves.
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