- Trump again threatens major strikes on Iran then pulls back, saying U.S. allies urged diplomacy — a recurring pattern that raises questions about U.S. resolve.
- Iran is widening the conflict through proxies (notably Houthi attacks in the Red Sea) and demonstrating long‑range strike capabilities, giving Tehran a strategic edge.
- The standoff is depleting U.S. air‑defense interceptors, heightening energy‑market risks and adding political pressure ahead of the midterm elections.
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