- MVPs are basically a quarterback award — only Adrian Peterson (2011) has won as a non‑QB since 2008.
- Team success matters: almost all recent MVP QBs played on teams that earned a first‑round playoff bye (15 of the last 17 QB winners).
- Patrick Mahomes at 15‑1 is a tempting bounce‑back pick — coming off an ACL but no voter fatigue and the Chiefs should rebound.
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