- Only eight nations have ever won the men's World Cup; with Italy failing to qualify for 2026, just seven past champions are in the field and 41 countries could win their first title.
- Betting markets make a first-time winner plausible (Yes +200 vs No -280) — Portugal is the favorite among never-winners (≈+1000), the Netherlands and Norway close behind, and the U.S. is listed around +6000 at home.
- The expanded 48-team 2026 format increases upset potential (32 teams reach knockouts) but also lengthens the champion’s road — five knockout wins and eight matches total.
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