- Spain and France were the most likely winners in the 100,000 sims — each won about 16% of the time, and the usual big five (Spain, France, England, Brazil, Argentina) lifted the trophy a combined 63% of the simulations.
- Host nations got love: the U.S. reached the semis in 9.8% of sims and won 1.3%, Mexico reached semis 7.3% and won 0.9%, while Canada never won in the simulations.
- Kylian Mbappé was the most frequent Golden Boot winner (13%), Harry Kane was second (12%), and eight goals was the most likely total to take the award.
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