- Putin is under growing domestic strain — huge battlefield casualties, a shrinking economy, fuel and food shortages, drone attacks at home and falling popularity — undermining the social contract that kept him secure.
- Moscow may be tempted to seize small, ethnic‑Russian areas in the Baltics (after false‑flag incidents and attacks on runways/rail) to force concessions, even threatening nuclear escalation to win a negotiated settlement.
- The perceived ambivalence of the U.S. under Trump and NATO’s slow, unanimous decision process could give Putin a risky window to press his gains — a development with huge implications for European security.
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