- The Treasury market is signaling rates need to go higher — two‑year yields have jumped to ~4.15%, well above the Fed’s 3.5–3.75% policy band, and traders are pricing in a possible hike as soon as October.
- Strong job growth and an AI‑led spending boom are raising overheating worries, pushing yields up across the curve and pressuring the Fed’s new chair, Kevin Warsh.
- This week’s CPI report could soothe or confirm the market’s repricing, but many investors now see 4%+ yields on key Treasuries as the new baseline.
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